12:00 AM
LiveCaptured
$69,300.01
93.8%above
05:48 left · now $69,467.50 · +$167.49
Versus this close
Bitcoin · Coinbase+BRTI $5
$69,467.50
+$5,022.06 · +7.79%
Coinbase stream + $5 until BRTI keys work
Live print. Odds are for this 15-minute close.
- 24h high
- $70,022
- 24h low
- $64,112
- Volume
- 16871 BTC
This window
05:48 left · $69,300
Sit out
Blended leftover is +0.3¢ after fees. Need +3.0¢ Up or +6.0¢ Down. Model 58.7% / market 41.3%.
Suggested face
—
No ticket
- Spot is BRTI (what settles). Coinbase vs last BRTI print is a stale-book rest, not the 15m forecast.
- Up needs 3¢ leftover. Down needs 6¢. Pay 40–80¢ — dogs and 91¢ favorites both lost.
- $3 floor · ¼ Kelly on 5¢ · 5% of cash.
- No adds. No side flips.
- Sell if model leftover is gone and ≥4¢ is locked. If the model is still ≥80%, need ≥15¢ locked — don't scratch an 80¢ payout.
- Last 60s: sit unless the 60s-average race is ≥8¢ vs the book.
Kalshi · KXBTC15M
Model versus the market
Up resolves if the CF BRTI 60-second close average is at least the captured target $69,299.80. Closes in 05:48.
Horizon up
93.8%
vs $69,300 · spot $69,468
Kalshi up
95.0%
94.9¢ / 95.0¢ bid–ask
Blend
94.3%
58.7% model · 41.3% market
Net edge
+0.3¢
No tradeable gap
| Side | Model | Pay the ask | Est. fee | After cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy Up | 93.8% | 95.0¢ | 0.3¢ | −1.0¢ |
| Buy Down | 6.2% | 5.1¢ | 0.3¢ | +0.3¢ |
A gap is expected value against our model, not locked arbitrage. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks BRTI (60-second averages), not the Coinbase vol + BRTI (or Coinbase+$5) spot on this desk. Fees and the spread are already subtracted. The blend starts as mostly Kalshi and lets our model take over as time runs down. We only flag a side when that blended leftover is at least 3¢. Asks under 40¢ are skipped — those tickets were 0-for on the live tape. Book arb would require Up ask + Down ask under $1 after fees — that almost never prints.
Autotrader
Disarmed
Off. Nothing will be sent.
- Book
- $500.00
- Session PnL
- +$0
- Fills
- 0
- Settled
- 0
- No fills this session.
Desk log
0 events
Dogs, favorites, fires, fills, misses, TPs. Open/TP rows now have signal ask and slip (fill − signal). leftover_at_fill ≈ leftover − slip.
| Time | Kind | Action | Model | Ask U/D | Left | Slip | Spot | Why |
|---|
Nothing yet. Leave the desk open — dog skips and fire signals log.
This hour
Four prints, then the next close
12:00 AM UTC
At :00, :15, :30, and :45 the live price is captured. The odds are for the close of that fifteen-minute bar versus that captured print — and they tighten as time runs out.
12:15 AM
NextOpens in 05:48
12:30 AM
NextOpens in 20:48
12:45 AM
NextOpens in 35:48
What if
Set a target
P(above $69,300) 93.8%