Horizon — 15-minute Bitcoin odds

Bitcoin · Coinbase+BRTI $5

$81,381.36

−$61.74 · −0.08%

Coinbase stream + $5 until BRTI keys work

Live print. Odds are for this 15-minute close.

24h high: $81,655
24h low: $80,700
Volume: 1874 BTC

This window

08:29 left · $81,342

Sit out

Blended leftover is +2.2¢ after fees. Need +3.0¢ Up or +6.0¢ Down. Model 48.9% / market 51.1%.

Bankroll$

Suggested face

—

No ticket

Spot is BRTI (what settles). Coinbase vs last BRTI print is a stale-book rest, not the 15m forecast.
Up needs 3¢ leftover. Down needs 6¢. Pay 40–80¢ — dogs and 91¢ favorites both lost.
$3 floor · ¼ Kelly on 5¢ · 5% of cash.
No adds. No side flips.
Sell if model leftover is gone and ≥4¢ is locked. If the model is still ≥80%, need ≥15¢ locked — don't scratch an 80¢ payout.
Last 60s: sit unless the 60s-average race is ≥8¢ vs the book.

Kalshi · KXBTC15M

Model versus the market

Open contract

Up resolves if the CF BRTI 60-second close average is at least the captured target $81,342.07. Closes in 08:29.

Horizon up

76.2%

vs $81,342 · spot $81,381

Kalshi up

67.5%

67.0¢ / 68.0¢ bid–ask

Blend

71.8%

48.9% model · 51.1% market

Net edge

+2.2¢

No tradeable gap

Side	Model	Pay the ask	Est. fee	After cost
Buy Up	76.2%	68.0¢	1.5¢	+2.2¢
Buy Down	23.8%	33.0¢	1.5¢	−6.3¢

A gap is expected value against our model, not locked arbitrage. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks BRTI (60-second averages), not the Coinbase vol + BRTI (or Coinbase+$5) spot on this desk. Fees and the spread are already subtracted. The blend starts as mostly Kalshi and lets our model take over as time runs down. We only flag a side when that blended leftover is at least 3¢. Asks under 40¢ are skipped — those tickets were 0-for on the live tape. Book arb would require Up ask + Down ask under $1 after fees — that almost never prints.

Autotrader

Disarmed

Off. Nothing will be sent.

Book: $500.00
Session PnL: +$0
Fills: 0
Settled: 0

No fills this session.

Desk log

0 events

Dogs, favorites, fires, fills, misses, TPs. Open/TP rows now have signal ask and slip (fill − signal). leftover_at_fill ≈ leftover − slip.

Time	Kind	Action	Model	Ask U/D	Left	Slip	Spot	Why

Nothing yet. Leave the desk open — dog skips and fire signals log.

This hour

Four prints, then the next close

12:00 AM UTC

At :00, :15, :30, and :45 the live price is captured. The odds are for the close of that fifteen-minute bar versus that captured print — and they tighten as time runs out.

12:00 AM

Settled

Captured

$81,387.16

Below $81,358

−$29.16 on the close

12:15 AM

Settled

Captured

$81,358.00

Below $81,331

−$26.85 on the close

12:30 AM

Live

Captured

$81,331.14

81.9%above

08:29 left · now $81,381.36 · +$50.22

Versus this close

12:45 AM

Opens in 08:29

What if

Set a target

Target (USD)

P(above $81,331) 81.9%